Following economic slowdown in 2001 (GDP grew by
1 per cent), since the 2nd half of 2002 Poland’s
economy has been showing upward tendencies. In the
3rd quarter GDP growth rate increased by 1.6 per cent
in real terms. GDP growth rate is estimated to have
been even stronger (about 2 per cent) in the 4th quarter
of 2002. In the light of the above, economic growth
is estimated to have shaped at the level of 1.3 per
cent in the entire 2002. GDP amounted to about PLN
769.4 billion. When converting into US dollar it amounted
to USD 188.6 billion and USD 4,883 per capita. GDP
value in terms of purchasing power parity per capita
reached the level of about USD 11 thousand.
The main factors behind economy recovery last year
were: an increase in private consumption and a rise
in exports. Preliminary GDP estimates allow to assess
private consumption growth to pick up by about 3.3
per cent as compared to 2001. Stronger than a year
before private consumption was the result of decreasing
inflation. This effected in an increase in purchasing
power of financial means at the disposal of households.
Last year valorisation of retirement pay and pensions
also had its impact on the higher real level of social
benefits. Private consumption share in GDP is estimated
to have increased to 65.5 per cent (below 64 per cent
in 2001).
Gross capital formation decreased by 7.3 per cent,
of which the value of gross fixed capital formation
declined by 7.2 per cent in comparison to 2001. Directly,
investment was hampered by relatively high credit
interest rates in banks (despite the subtraction of
interest rates by Monetary Policy Council) as well
as by unfavourable economic environment (internal
and external) what discouraged domestic and foreign
investors. Information on the possible USA attack
on Iraq did not resulted in the improvement of investors’
confidence.
Economic growth in 2002 was fuelled by exports (trade
turnover data point to that). According to the preliminary
data exports increased by 13.3 per cent, while imports
– by 9.5 per cent (in USD, according to custom
statistics).
In 2002 gross value added in the national economy
grew by 1.3 per cent in real terms in comparison with
2001. It resulted mainly from the improvement in market
service sector (creating about 50% of total value
added), where value added edged up by 3.5 per cent.
Retail trade recovery, recorded mainly in major entities,
supported this change. Value added in industry also
was by 0.9 per cent higher than a year before (against
drop in 2001). In construction sector it declined
by 7.1 per cent.
In 2003 an upward trend in consumption recorded in
the 2nd half of 2002 is expected to be continued.
It will be supported by the implementation of new
solutions in anti-crisis package, carrying out steps
to contract unemployment as well as by service sector
development and the improvement in economic entities’
profitability. On the assumption that the propensity
to save in 2003 will maintain at the level comparable
to the one in 2002 and that the availability of consumer
credits will improve (lower interest rates), private
consumption is estimated to increase by 3.2 per cent
in 2003 as compared to 2002.
Favourable changes in the economy, such as development
of small and medium seize enterprises, acceleration
of consumption and savings growth rate, further improvement
in foreign trade balance and increase in labour demand,
will contribute most to the economic growth in 2003.
In 2003 in the presence of favourable economic environment
abroad, GDP is estimated to increase by some 3.5 per
cent as compared to 2002 (growth rate prescribed in
the Budgetary Law).
Source: Ministry of Economy, Labour and Social Policy
"A study of Poland's economic performance in
2002"
